Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 13.746578 16.776662 20.163671 24.207950 28.882245 34.091330 40.310750
2025-04-27 9.599125 13.548905 18.471188 24.955079 33.160788 43.084643 55.866418
2025-05-04 7.403501 11.719797 17.567274 25.847039 37.020282 51.309372 70.660996
2025-05-11 5.864173 10.279270 16.710672 26.387155 40.146858 58.542110 84.445497
2025-05-18 4.582081 8.865581 15.549682 26.184197 42.032942 64.062288 96.143199
2025-05-25 3.497700 7.482573 14.141504 25.324423 42.746044 67.850733 105.546909
2025-06-01 2.781661 6.543854 13.242267 25.053140 44.186481 72.632195 116.476036
2025-06-08 2.113714 5.513198 11.987890 23.995031 44.232663 75.271530 124.358332
2025-06-15 1.817026 5.150166 11.845193 24.752948 47.170196 82.358711 139.071957
2025-06-22 1.411318 4.432535 10.903938 23.966953 47.457011 85.322393 147.674455
2025-06-29 1.238584 4.211520 10.897473 24.861345 50.617006 92.937242 163.701468
2025-07-06 0.903047 3.465512 9.662029 23.261823 49.274252 93.189075 168.212365
2025-07-13 0.754040 3.202317 9.484025 23.826691 52.051585 100.708420 185.208644
2025-07-20 0.632369 2.978670 9.365376 24.521937 55.175905 109.081791 204.158656
2025-07-27 0.539711 2.809024 9.339507 25.399006 58.696848 118.308745 224.912446
2025-08-03 0.448573 2.601042 9.170160 25.931438 61.577981 126.559083 244.387247
2025-08-10 0.350026 2.308611 8.707352 25.731306 62.978323 132.248059 259.778453
2025-08-17 0.255604 1.966637 8.014746 24.883581 62.971489 135.375227 270.899684
2025-08-24 0.195566 1.738145 7.592878 24.616115 64.115999 140.628232 285.871978
2025-08-31 0.136138 1.453514 6.907773 23.572975 63.499003 142.539367 295.028706
2025-09-07 0.115120 1.381394 6.911638 24.320157 66.824599 152.050977 318.031136
2025-09-14 0.080782 1.175605 6.380932 23.545296 66.691392 154.903322 329.164408
2025-09-21 0.069265 1.132542 6.443783 24.427024 70.377930 165.349005 354.451648